Post by admin

Optimism Bias is the economic concept whereby humans make forecasts, predictions, budgets and schedules that overestimate the positives and benefits while underestimating the negatives and the risks. It’s unconscious and well documented. It’s one of the major reasons public works, transit and infrastructure projects are perpetually over-budget and not-on-schedule.

For example:

This morning (a Saturday no less), my girlfriend and I decided to go to Ikea. How smart was this? Not very. Everything you need to know about the awful side of humanity you can learn from one trip to Ikea on a Saturday morning. And I know this.

I know there’s going to be traffic. I know it’s going to be at least an hour’s drive. I know there’s not going to be a parking spot less than 1 km from the front door. I know it’s going to take me 15 minutes to find a bathroom. I know the line up for $1 hot dogs is going to be longer than the night is dark. I know I’m going to get into a fight with my girlfriend. I know I’m going to confuse the Billy with the Expedit. I know I’m going to need an hour of advanced calculus lessons just to figure out the 17 different components I need to build a desk. I know I’ll have difficulty choosing between Birch and Maple. I know I’m going to add twelve things to my shopping cart only to remove seven of them two hours later. I know I’m going to do that twice. I know it’s going to take the 14 year old salesman 20 minutes to confirm that the item I require to prevent my bookshelf from falling over and injuring me is not in stock despite what the computer tells him. I know I’m not going to be able to read the measurements I took at home because I scribbled them on the back of a napkin. I know half the cash registers will be closed. I know I’m going to have to go to some other counter to place a special order. I know I’m going to spend twice what I had hoped because those tealights were just too good of a deal to pass up. I know it’s going to take 30 minutes (minimum) to figure out how to fit whatever I bought into the back of the car. I know I’m going to need to go back in the store to get rope to tie the trunk closed. I know I’m going to have to stop for gas because that’s just how far away Ikea is.I know it’s going to take me days to allen key together all this stuff. And I know I’m going to have to go back there the very next day to buy the legs that should’ve been included with my table but for some reason are sold separately.

I know all this. I know it like gospel. Ikea on a Saturday morning is like taking candy from strangers. You just don’t do it. Ikea on a Saturday morning is Ikea for an entire weekend. It’s a zero sum game. And yet despite knowing this, I wholeheartedly believed that we could get to Ikea and back with plenty of time to get a blog post up by lunch. Right, Steve, right.

So please accept my apologies for the lateness of this post. My optimism got the better of me.